Updates at the Break

With the All-Star Break, which marks the just-past-halfway point in the season, starting tomorrow, here are some updates on some of the players and situations I addressed during the preseason and the first half.

They can’t really call him “Zorilla” anymore. But he’s still good.

On February 24, I examined the sudden, late-20s power surge of Ben Zobrist and concluded that, while he was unlikely to continue his monster pace of the 2008 and 2009 seasons, he would be a very solid player going forward. In 2010 the power has evaporated. After slugging 39 home runs in his previous 699 at bats, he has only five in 306 at bats this season. He has, however, remained a very valuable player by taking walks, hitting a few doubles, playing great defense in the outfield and at second base, and stealing more bases than ever before.

On March 3, I took on Tom Verducci and his bogus Year-After Effect. Verducci’s supposed link between high workloads for young pitchers and injury or ineffectiveness relies on the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean to give the appearance of a causal relationship. Regression has struck again this season, with most of the players on his 2010 list either injured, suffering steep declines from 2009 performance, or banished to the minors. My response is still the same: don’t buy into it.

The legend grows, one K at a time.

On March 17, I looked into the value of some of the biggest whiffers in history. Mark Reynolds is moving up the list, striking out in an astonishing 41 percent of his at bats this season. With 119 strikeouts already, he is well on his way to breaking the season record for the third consecutive year. He has still provided plenty of value by walking more than average and slugging 20 home runs. Jack Cust has continued his trend from last season, cutting back further on his strikeouts but displaying the weakest pop of his Oakland A’s career.

The following week, I compared the early careers of Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez. At 35, Rolen is enjoying a fantastic late-career season that is helping his push for the Hall of Fame. Just two or three more decent seasons will make him a sure bet. The 32-year-old Chavez, meanwhile, made it through only 33 poor games at designated hitter before suffering what may end up as a career-ending injury.

In April, I looked at two catchers who were inexplicably riding the pine. Chris Iannetta was buried on the Colorado Rockies’ bench, and Mike Napoli was splitting time for the Anaheim Angels with the light-hitting, defense-first Jeff Mathis. Iannetta has not received a fair shot this season, even spending some time in the minors. He is a major-league quality catcher. Napoli snagged the Angels’ full-time job when Mathis broke his hand, and he responded by slugging 14 home runs in the first half.

“Hey, come down here, I gotta ask you something. Can you tell them to put me in more often? This is fun.”

Jamie Moyer’s successful age-47 season has continued. He has now made 17 starts, thrown more than 100 innings and two complete games, and picked up nine wins. He is not a particularly good pitcher at this point, but he can still compete with major league hitters less than half his age.

On May 19, I wrote about an offseason bad contract swap between the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago Cubs. Milton Bradley has had slightly better luck recently, but his poor season for the Mariners has continued. Carlos Silva, the other player in the deal, has completely resurrected his career with the Cubs. After striking out fewer than four batters per nine innings in over 1,000 innings pitched, he has whiffed more than six per nine this season while maintaining the excellent control that has been there throughout his career. He is unlikely to hold his ERA under three, but he has quickly gone from a completely expendable part on the Mariners to a useful starter on the Cubs.

Finally, in the week since I wrote about the greatness of Cliff Lee, he has started two games with 17 total innings pitched, 13 strikeouts, and one walk, and has seen the Mariners deal him to the Texas Rangers for prospects. It was the third time a team has traded Lee in the past calendar year, which is remarkable considering that he has been one of the top five pitchers in all of MLB over the past three seasons.

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