Power and Control

“You are mine now! You belong to me!”

Cliff Lee is in the middle of what may turn out to be one of the most amazing seasons in history. No, he is not as utterly dominating as Pedro Martinez was in 1999 and 2000. He is not on pace to strike out 300 or to post an ERA under two. However, the combination of power and control he has showcased so far this year is among the best we have ever seen.

Despite missing April with an injury, Lee pitched 95⅔ innings in the first half of the season. He whiffed 78 batters for a ratio of 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, which is just a tad above average. Meanwhile, he has walked only five batters, or 0.47 per nine innings. Only once in history has a pitcher qualified for the ERA title—which requires at least 162 innings pitched—while walking less than ½ a batter per nine innings. In 2005, Carlos Silva walked nine batters in nearly 200 innings, but he did so by pitching to contact; he struck out only 71 over the course of the entire year. This season, Lee has generated plenty of strikeouts while exhibiting some of the best control for a starting pitcher in the history of the game.

It bears repeating: Pedro was the greatest.

If Lee pitches a reasonable number of innings during the second half of the season and holds his strikeout-to-walk ratio anywhere near its current level, he will obliterate all previous marks for starting pitchers. His current ratio of 15.6 strikeouts per walk would easily top Bret Saberhagen’s record. Saberhagen whiffed 11 batters for every free pass in 1994, when he struck out 143 while walking only 13 in 177⅓ innings. In fact, only five pitchers have put up a ratio above eight to one while qualifying for the ERA title, with Pedro doing it in both 1999 and 2000.

Lee’s ratio is still remarkable when taking into account shorter seasons. Even after removing the lower limit to innings pitched, only six other pitchers have posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio above 12 to one, and all six were relievers. The following numbers are from Baseball Reference.

Lee is unlikely to walk as few batters in the second half of the season as he has in the first, so his ratio will probably drop. One projection system, available on his FanGraphs page, projects 18 walks in 106 innings the rest of the way. But through half a season, Lee has exhibited one of the best pairings of power and control in history.