Expectations for Strasburg

A batter once got a hit against him, and was then awakened from his daydream by a 100 mph fastball.

The Washington Nationals drafted one of the most hyped prospects in history last season, and proceeded to hand him the largest deal a draftee had ever received. The hype around Stephen Strasburg was so intense that it seemed inevitable that he would disappoint, at least at first. It just did not seem possible for a rookie with a couple of months of minor league experience to come in and dominate big-league hitters.

Four starts into his career, Strasburg has actually exceeded expectations. He is not only dominating hitters, he is pitching like Pedro Martinez in his prime. He struck out 14 batters in his first major league start, and he has now racked up 41 punchouts in just 25⅓ innings, for a rate of about 14½ per nine. Meanwhile, he has walked only five total batters, giving him a power-control combination that ranks with the best pitchers in the game. He has a 1.78 ERA, and batters are hitting .202 against him. And he is only 21 years old. How much better can we expect Strasburg to get?

According to one researcher, he is going to have a hard time just running in place over the next few years. Mitchel Lichtman, co-author of The Book, wrote an article earlier this season exploring how pitchers age. For all of us that had an ingrained belief that young pitchers get better with age and experience, the results were astonishing. Lichtman found that, taking injuries into account, average pitcher performance does not improve at all from ages 21-26, and then enters a steep dive with steady performance declines every year.

Mark Prior was the Stephen Strasburg of 2002.

What does this mean? If we take any particular pitcher and try to project his performance, we have to expect that on average it will stay flat or decline over time. Some pitchers will improve, but many will decline or get injured, and we do not yet know how to distinguish between the two possibilities before the fact. As Lichtman explains, “for every Felix Hernandez there is at least one Mark Prior.” Prior, of course, signed his own record deal after the 2001 draft, had an incredible season at age 22 when he struck out 245 in 211⅓ innings, and then quickly succumbed to injuries. He made nine poor starts at 25, and has not seen the majors since.

Strasburg may end up one of the lucky ones who stays healthy and improves as enters his mid-20s. If that happens, he will develop into one of the best pitchers of all time. But that is not the safe bet. As amazing as it may sound for a 21-year-old who has just made a smashing major league debut, we may actually be watching the high point of Strasburg’s career right now. There is a significant chance that his performance declines or that he gets injured, and both the Nationals and everyone else should take care not to bank on the best-case scenario.