A batter once got a hit against him, and was then awakened from his daydream by a 100 mph fastball.
The Washington Nationals drafted one of the most hyped prospects in history last season, and proceeded to hand him the largest deal a draftee had ever received. The hype around Stephen Strasburg was so intense that it seemed inevitable that he would disappoint, at least at first. It just did not seem possible for a rookie with a couple of months of minor league experience to come in and dominate big-league hitters.
Four starts into his career, Strasburg has actually exceeded expectations. He is not only dominating hitters, he is pitching like Pedro Martinez in his prime. He struck out 14 batters in his first major league start, and he has now racked up 41 punchouts in just 25⅓ innings, for a rate of about 14½ per nine. Meanwhile, he has walked only five total batters, giving him a power-control combination that ranks with the best pitchers in the game. He has a 1.78 ERA, and batters are hitting .202 against him. And he is only 21 years old. How much better can we expect Strasburg to get?
Continue reading ‘Expectations for Strasburg’
Barton is really good at bunting. Unfortunately, he’s not quite as good at hitting home runs.
Daric Barton, first baseman for the Oakland Athletics, is currently tied for the Major League lead in sacrifice bunts. And a lot of people really do not like that.
Over at Athletics Nation, an A’s fan site, statistics-savvy contributors have been calling for manager Bob Geren’s head for months. Joe Posnanski agrees. He wrote a column the other day suggesting that, among other things, “[s]omebody tell that man to stop doing that immediately.” Matt Klassen at FanGraphs also agrees, arguing that every single one of Barton’s bunts has been a bad idea. How could the team that led baseball’s statistical revolution in the late-1990s and early-2000s be so stupid? How can Billy Beane sit back and let his manager throw away out after out by allowing Barton, a good on-base hitter, to sacrifice his plate appearances?
As Tom Tango explains, it is not so simple. Tango makes two points: 1) Barton may have a chance to reach base when he bunts; and 2) all the bunting may force infielders to play in, giving him more hitting room and making him more successful when he does choose to swing.
Continue reading ‘Bunt it Like Barton’
Someone tell Maddux that pitching is better now than a decade ago.
After Armando Galarraga’s performance Wednesday, articles started to pop up questioning whether three perfect games in 25 days meant that pitching had risen to dominance in Major League Baseball. While it certainly is possible that pitchers are better now than they ever have been, those suggesting that the numbers or specific performances from the first third of the season have a larger meaning are using flawed logic to make their case. For a look at one aspect of this argument, let’s explore the claim that there have been an abnormal number of dominant performances so far this season.
First, three perfect games did not occur in a 25 day span, because Armando Galarraga did not throw a perfect game. In order to make 27 straight outs, a pitcher must get very lucky in a multitude of ways. In a game against the Padres last season, Jonathan Sanchez was just about perfect, retiring every batter he faced except for Chase Headley who reached on an error by the third baseman. Sanchez did everything right, and a little bit of bad luck turned his perfect game into a mere no-hitter. An analogous situation happened with Galarraga. He did everything right, but some bad luck took his perfect game away. Just as the error behind Sanchez prevented a perfect game 13 days before Mark Buerhle’s for the White Sox, a blown call for Galarraga prevented a third perfect game in 25 days this season.
Continue reading ‘Is Pitching More Dominant?’
They traded the best pitcher in the game and suddenly they’re good. Baseball is weird.
Two months of baseball are in the books, and there are some real surprises in the standings, particularly in the American League East and the National League.
Everyone knew that Tampa Bay had a good team before the season started, but at 35-18, with two and a half games of space between themselves and the Yankees, they have exceeded expectations. The Toronto Blue Jays have obliterated expectations for their club, winning 31 of their first 54 games and keeping pace with the Red Sox. Boston struggled greatly in April, but turned things around in May, and even die-hard fans probably are not surprised that they sit two and a half games behind the Yankees. The real shock is that they are in fourth place in the division. Apart from the East standings, there are not many real surprises in the rest of the AL, with the possible exception of Seattle. The Mariners added some really nice players this offseason—particularly Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, and Milton Bradley—and were a popular pick to compete for the West this season. They have sputtered to a 20-31 record and are probably out of contention.
Continue reading ‘Surprises in the Standings’
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