Powering Up in the Bay

Sweeney has “warning track power,” but he looks good doing it.

The Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants, who play just a few miles from each other on opposite sides of the San Francisco Bay, have very similar players manning right field. Ryan Sweeney of the A’s and Nate Schierholtz of the Giants are young, tall, rangy outfielders who hit from the left side. Both are quite good at making contact, and both have the range to handle center field, though only Sweeney has played the position in the majors. Both look the part of the big, power-hitting, major league corner outfielder. However, neither actually hits for much power.

A big part of the reason these players lack power is that the balls they hit in the air do not travel very far. Baseball Reference provides batting splits by hit trajectory. I compiled the MLB-wide numbers from 2008 through 2010, the years in which Sweeney and Schierholtz have had most of their appearances. During that period, 8.9 percent of fly balls and 2.2 percent of line drives went over the fence for home runs. Those are averages for all players, and are modest compared to the rates of true power hitters. Ryan Howard, for example, has had more than 27 percent of his fly balls carry out of the park.

“Hey buddy, don’t wait so long for the next one, okay?”

By contrast, Sweeney’s 13 career home runs make up just 4.4 percent of fly balls. Schierholtz has seven career homers, and they have come on 4.2 percent of his fly balls. Neither player has hit a home run on a line drive. Despite lacking power, both are valuable players. Sweeney, due mainly to great defense, was worth nearly four wins above replacement in 2009, putting him in the company of Justin Morneau and Raul Ibanez that season. However, the minuscule power numbers hold both players back. What would Sweeney and Schierholtz look like if their home run rates were just league average?

Taking Sweeney’s fly balls and line drives and giving him league average home run rates would bump his career total up to 31 homers, an additional 18 home runs over about two seasons worth of playing time. Doing the same for Schierholtz results in 17 home runs, or an extra 10 in about one season of playing time. I took these extra home runs and factored them into the players’ batting lines, and I got the following results. All numbers are through Saturday’s games.

The actual batting lines for both players put them right around, or perhaps slightly below, league average. They make good contact and take a few walks, but they have power typical of middle infielders. Both slot somewhere between Adam Kennedy’s .277/.330/.391 and Orlando Hudson’s .283/.349/.429 career lines. Adjusting their home run rates suddenly makes them both .300 hitters with some pop. Their adjusted numbers are solidly above average and better fit the mold of an outfielder with a decent bat, somewhere between Shane Victorino and Johnny Damon.

As with my post on Ichiro’s groundballs, these adjusted numbers should come with a warning. Both players probably derive some value from not swinging too hard, which hurts their power but may help them achieve good contact numbers. However, it is interesting to see just how much value they leave on the table due to their weak power numbers. Both are young—Sweeney is just 25 and Schierholtz 26—and still have time to develop power. Until then, they will need to continue to play great defense and make good contact to remain valuable players.