Comments on: How to Hit .400 http://www.ballyourbase.com/posts/2010/02/how-to-hit-400 Essays on Baseball Sun, 05 Sep 2010 11:17:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: lincolndude http://www.ballyourbase.com/posts/2010/02/how-to-hit-400/comment-page-1#comment-48 lincolndude Thu, 25 Mar 2010 19:20:34 +0000 http://www.ballyourbase.com/?p=297#comment-48 Thank you very much for your thoughts. I agree, walks are an important factor. However, I don't think we can just replace outs with walks, because then we're really getting into fantasyland. If we want to do the thought experiment, "What would happen if Ichiro walked more?" then I'd prefer to keep his HR, K, and BABIP rates constant and simply adjust his total at bats down, which would reflect more of his plate appearances ending in walks. I actually do something similar in part 2 of this series, which is here: http://www.ballyourbase.com/posts/2010/03/how-to-hit-400-part-2 Also, no matter how much Ichiro walks, his batting average is still going to be fueled only by his BABIP and BABnIP (weighted appropriately). So, yes, power does matter. The best HR/K ratio he's ever had was 15/66 in 2005. That's a .185 average over 81 at bats, and that weighs him down big time. It means he has to hit for a very high average on his balls in play -- well over .400 -- to make up the difference. And while he has been amazing at getting hits on balls in play, he'd have to do something really unprecedented in the modern era, like hit for a .420 or .430 BABIP. Ted Williams in 1941? Yes, he did walk a lot, but that served to limit his at bats to about 450 (Ichiro is usually near 700), rather than actually affecting his batting average. He hit over .400 with just a .378 BABIP mark, and he was able to do that because he hit 37 home runs and struck out only 27 times, giving him a .578 average over those 64 at bats. That's a really great head start, and something Ichiro will never come close to. The main point here was that while Pujols would still have to get incredibly lucky to hit for an overall .400 average, he wouldn't have to do anything unprecedented. And that's because he does so well on his HR/K ratio, approaching 1/1 in some seasons. So while I agree with you that walks do serve a purpose in limiting at bats, they're not directly related to batting average. Thank you very much for your thoughts.

I agree, walks are an important factor. However, I don’t think we can just replace outs with walks, because then we’re really getting into fantasyland. If we want to do the thought experiment, “What would happen if Ichiro walked more?” then I’d prefer to keep his HR, K, and BABIP rates constant and simply adjust his total at bats down, which would reflect more of his plate appearances ending in walks. I actually do something similar in part 2 of this series, which is here:

http://www.ballyourbase.com/posts/2010/03/how-to-hit-400-part-2

Also, no matter how much Ichiro walks, his batting average is still going to be fueled only by his BABIP and BABnIP (weighted appropriately). So, yes, power does matter. The best HR/K ratio he’s ever had was 15/66 in 2005. That’s a .185 average over 81 at bats, and that weighs him down big time. It means he has to hit for a very high average on his balls in play — well over .400 — to make up the difference. And while he has been amazing at getting hits on balls in play, he’d have to do something really unprecedented in the modern era, like hit for a .420 or .430 BABIP.

Ted Williams in 1941? Yes, he did walk a lot, but that served to limit his at bats to about 450 (Ichiro is usually near 700), rather than actually affecting his batting average. He hit over .400 with just a .378 BABIP mark, and he was able to do that because he hit 37 home runs and struck out only 27 times, giving him a .578 average over those 64 at bats. That’s a really great head start, and something Ichiro will never come close to.

The main point here was that while Pujols would still have to get incredibly lucky to hit for an overall .400 average, he wouldn’t have to do anything unprecedented. And that’s because he does so well on his HR/K ratio, approaching 1/1 in some seasons. So while I agree with you that walks do serve a purpose in limiting at bats, they’re not directly related to batting average.

]]> By: me http://www.ballyourbase.com/posts/2010/02/how-to-hit-400/comment-page-1#comment-47 me Thu, 25 Mar 2010 06:54:05 +0000 http://www.ballyourbase.com/?p=297#comment-47 Decent theory here, but you left out a huge factor in hitting...walks. Ted Williams walked 147 times in '41 and had an on base percentage of .551. The reason Ichiro doesn't get close to hitting .400 is cuz he doesn't walk much, not cuz he doesn't hit for much power. The most walks he's had in a season is 68 and that is about 20 higher than his average during his career. The more times you walk to fewer hits you need. He hit .372 one year. If he walked 100 times that year (51 more than he actually did and still 47 times less than Williams in '41) he would have hit just over .400 (assuming all the walks replaced outs). If he walked 147 times like Williams he would have hit way over .400 (even if all the walks didn't replace outs, but instead replaced hits). So while you theory is pretty solid it is incomplete. Strikeouts are the reason guys like Cust and Dunn don't hit for high averages, but walks are why Ichiro doesn't. Decent theory here, but you left out a huge factor in hitting…walks. Ted Williams walked 147 times in ‘41 and had an on base percentage of .551. The reason Ichiro doesn’t get close to hitting .400 is cuz he doesn’t walk much, not cuz he doesn’t hit for much power. The most walks he’s had in a season is 68 and that is about 20 higher than his average during his career. The more times you walk to fewer hits you need. He hit .372 one year. If he walked 100 times that year (51 more than he actually did and still 47 times less than Williams in ‘41) he would have hit just over .400 (assuming all the walks replaced outs). If he walked 147 times like Williams he would have hit way over .400 (even if all the walks didn’t replace outs, but instead replaced hits). So while you theory is pretty solid it is incomplete. Strikeouts are the reason guys like Cust and Dunn don’t hit for high averages, but walks are why Ichiro doesn’t.

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